Today’s YouGov showed a Westminster voting intention roughly in line with what we’ve been seeing lately – a Labour lead of 5.
Meanwhile, their poll for the EU elections shows a very different picture. There is bad news for all of the major parties – Labour will want to win these elections, or it will be much harder for them to claim any kind of high ground over the Tories when it comes to UKIP. The Tories, obviously, are in an awful position, similar to Labour in 2009, and the Lib Dems are in serious danger of coming 5th, behind the Greens.
For this is not the first EU poll which has showed the Greens running the LDs extremely close. I think the Lib Dems will end up coming 4th – just – but if the worst does happen for them, and they are overtaken by the Greens – serious questions will have to be asked about the future direction of the party.
I still think all three leaders will be there at the 2015 election, but these elections could have a huge impact on the future strategies of all three parties.