There were three polls last night, each one of them showed a Labour lead of 6:-
Obviously, all three of these polls are truly awful for the Lib Dems. They are into real core vote territory now, and it seems that debating Nigel Farage has actually made their already precarious position even worse. At a general election, I remain convinced that they will poll in double figures – but perhaps now the 10-11% range is looking more likely than the mid-teens.
Labour will be pleased that they have seen off the budget bounce – there is still danger for them with the high UKIP shares. It remains to be seen whether Cameron will have any more jokers left to play with regards to trying to win this UKIP vote back – it seemed that the budget would go some way to doing this, but any effect has dissipated extremely quickly.
UKIP themselves will be very pleased – especially with their 20% share with ComRes, which is their highest share with the pollster. There remains a disparity with the likes of YouGov, who have never shown UKIP anywhere near 20%, and I think this will remain a key talking point right up to the next election – measuring UKIP support is, in my opinion, the number one challenge for pollsters for 2015.
I’ll be posting up my weekly 2015 projection later, based on the current polling.