The general perception recently is that the Tories have been making up ground on Labour – in the last couple of months, this is the case – though perhaps not to the extent people think.
Labour lead April/May – average lead of 9.05
Labour Lead June/July: average lead of 7.7
So, Labour’s lead has dropped by around a point and a half over the last two months – perhaps not as dramatic as some may have expected. The key thing that jumps out from the second graph however, is how much more often Labour’s lead is dropping below the 6 point mark – it only happened twice in the whole of April/May, but has happened regularly in June/July. This suggests that there is scope for Labour’s lead to fall further.
There are now less than two years until the general election, and Labour will need to seize the initiative if they want to consolidate a good lead going into the campaign. This is now a quiet period politically, and personally I would not put a huge amount of stock in the polling until after conference season. If the Tories have a good conference, and Labour fail to capture the narrative at their own, then as the year draws to a close, we could see the Tories fighting back and narrowing the lead even further.