Latest GE2015 Projection – in slightly more detail

Party No. of seats Change from last week
LAB 353 -5
CON 242 4
LD 29 1
SNP 5 0
PC 1 0
GRN 1 0
NI 18 0
Speaker 1 0
Lab Majority 56  

From the actual source data used in my spreadsheet, it’s interesting to point out some detail:-

Labour’s vote retention is down slightly on last week (an average of 86% this week compared to almost 88% last week), showing how really marginal changes can affect the projection with so many closely contested seats. The Lib Dems are retaining their vote slightly better, which is reflected by them holding on to one additional seat from last week.

The Tories are taking slightly more votes directly from Labour this week – however they have been prevented from making any real progress by losing more votes to UKIP than they were last week.

As both Survation and ComRes polled this week, we were able to add their figures in along with the regular YouGov polls as they show how 2010 voters are now intending to vote. This gives us a wider variety of sources – it is quite striking how little the overall figures have changed despite the difference in pollsters.

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