RoadTo326 Latest GE2015 Projection

Party Name No. of seats Change from last week
LAB 345 -1
CON 253 -1
LD 26 2
SNP 5 0
PC 1 0
GRN 1 0
NI 18 0
Speaker 1 0
Lab Majority 40 -2

I have to say that I was expecting the projection to show an increase in Conservative seats this week with the Labour lead narrowing, but the fact is that the Tories are still losing a lot of their 2010 vote to UKIP. Until they improve their 2010 vote retention, it’s hard to see how the Tories can start getting back up towards the 300 mark in seats.

There is a small improvement for the Lib Dems this week – this is mainly due to the MORI poll that showed them retaining 53% of their 2010 vote – far higher than the 35-40% that YouGov tend to show. It will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems can pick up at the expense of Labour – if they do, then suddenly the next election is going to be far closer than some think.

Remember, it’s not just about Lib Dem held seats – Labour are relying on the Lib Dem vote to collapse in Lab/Con marginals for them to win an outright majority.

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