First RoadTo326 GE2015 Projection – Labour Majority of 54

Whilst sites like Electoral Calculus are good fun, and often give a rough guide to what would happen with certain changes in the vote, I have long thought that there must be a more accurate way to predict the national picture using opinion polls.

Today – after some minor hitches (mainly miscalculating the overall majority) I am making my first projection.

LAB 352
CON 251
LD 22
SNP 4
PC 1
GRN 1
NI 18
Speaker 1
Lab Majority 54 Total seats 650

I will be talking a lot more about the methodology I used, and looking at individual seats over the next few days and weeks. The projection will change either weekly or fortnightly – depending on how much polling data there is in a certain week.

If you’re interested – please bookmark the blog – I am hoping to write something at least every couple of days, or ideally every day.

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