Whilst sites like Electoral Calculus are good fun, and often give a rough guide to what would happen with certain changes in the vote, I have long thought that there must be a more accurate way to predict the national picture using opinion polls.
Today – after some minor hitches (mainly miscalculating the overall majority) I am making my first projection.
|Lab Majority||54||Total seats||650|
I will be talking a lot more about the methodology I used, and looking at individual seats over the next few days and weeks. The projection will change either weekly or fortnightly – depending on how much polling data there is in a certain week.
If you’re interested – please bookmark the blog – I am hoping to write something at least every couple of days, or ideally every day.